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Last season we attempted to predict the Canes' performance with a projected points total for each player. It was a brilliant idea in my own mind that hit a brick wall a month into the season when Cam Ward and Eric Staal both went down with assorted injuries.
So, of course, I'm going down the same road this year. Yes, probably insane (you know, doing the same thing twice, expecting different results, and so forth) but hey, it's decent water-cooler material if nothing else. This year, though, I'm restricting it to three sentences per player, max. (Not that I'm lazy; just trying to consolidate as much as possible.) As with last year, the numbers are pro-rated to 82 games, so that there's some consistency while eliminating the problem of predicting who will miss how many games.
Here goes nothing, in order by projected points...again:
Forwards
Eric Staal: Last year was an injury-riddled aberration, if you can call only missing 12 games "injury-riddled" -- but Staal wasn't at full strength for most of the year, and still managed a point-per-game pace. No reason he can't do the same again this season, with added incentives coming in the form of starting the season as captain and having the All-Star Game in his home arena. The only truly-dangerous offensive player on the Canes' roster (to start the season, anyway) will continue to answer the bell. Projection: 36/47/83
Jussi Jokinen: Will he score 30 again? Probably not, but Jokinen showed no signs of slowing down last season and 50 points is almost a given. Jokinen isn't as streaky as some other potential one-hit wonders, so while he won't hit 30 he'll put up respectable numbers. Projection: 24/31/55
Brandon Sutter: As opposed to last year, when Sutter was inexplicably sent to the AHL and Stephane Yelle, of all people, won a roster spot instead, Sutter will be on the roster from opening night this year. While it was assumed he would become a 20-goal scorer at some point, next to nobody thought it would happen in his second NHL season. He'll have better linemates this season than he's ever had, so he'll be in the 20-goal club again. Projection: 23/32/55
Sergei Samsonov: Really? Yes, really. Samsonov is in a contract year, and he'll use that to his great advantage. That is, if he isn't buried on the fourth line all season, a realistic possibility given the logjam of forwards in front of him on the depth chart. It wouldn't be surprising if he becomes trade bait at some point, but in the meantime he'll at least hold his own. Projection: 19/26/45
Jeff Skinner: I'll be honest: I have absolutely no idea what Skinner will do. I'm reasonably sure he will stay on the roster all year and not be returned to Kitchener, but to expect world-beating numbers from a rookie is somewhat unreasonable; that said, he has the goods to make a real splash. In the end, I expect Skinner to be more like Stamkos (46 points his rookie year) than Crosby (103). Projection: 23/18/41
Chad LaRose: I had him pegged for 20 last year, and an injury kept him from hitting the milestone number for the first time; he was on pace for 16 goals last season. He'll get regular top-six minutes this year, so while I'm not too confident he'll pot 20 he should come close again. Projection: 18/23/41
Patrick O'Sullivan: The revelation of training camp, O'Sullivan was frequently the best player on the ice during the preseason and his ascendance relegated Zach Boychuk to Charlotte. Will he be able to keep up that sterling play all year? Probably not, but considering he had 34 points in a lost year in Edmonton last season it's not too much to expect him to put a few streaks together this year. Projection: 17/23/40
Erik Cole: At this point it's a truism that Cole's power-forward pedigree has hit a wall since his broken neck in 2006. He has good chemistry with Staal, which will account for more than a few goals, but it wouldn't surprise anyone if this is another rough offensive season. One caveat: like Samsonov, Cole is in a contract year, so he might have a mild bump because of that. Projection: 16/20/36
Jiri Tlusty: Like Samsonov, a tweener that doesn't fit on checking lines but doesn't have enough consistent production to earn a regular spot in the top six. Unlike Samsonov, Tlusty is coming off a serious injury which will probably hinder him through the first part of the season. He'll likely be in the press box for at least a few games early in the season, so he will probably take a while to get up to speed given his injury and rehab. Projection: 12/19/31
Patrick Dwyer: He's not on the roster for his offensive exploits, but Dwyer is an integral part of the Canes' penalty kill and that will likely keep him in Raleigh all year. Any offense he chips in will be a bonus. Projection: 9/18/27
Zac Dalpe: It's a long way from the NCAA to the NHL in less than a year. He likely won't spend the entire season with the Canes, but it is worth noting that he had 7 points in 9 regular-season AHL games last year, followed by 6 points in 8 playoff games. That offensive production won't be in the NHL this year though. Projection: 8/15/23
Tom Kostopoulos: All you really need to know about Kostopoulos is his yearly point totals since breaking into the NHL in 2003-04: 22, 22, 22, 13, 22, 21. Why mess with success? Projection: 8/14/22
Drayson Bowman: Somewhat surprisingly, Bowman has carved out a niche as a defensive specialist even though he was a prolific scorer in junior hockey, much like LaRose. He'll be riding the Charlotte shuttle with Dalpe most of the season, so it's doubtful he'll make much of an offensive impact in the NHL this year. Projection: 7/9/16
Defensemen
Jamie McBain: Just about everyone is expecting a strong year from McBain, who will essentially serve as a clone of Joni Pitkanen. Don't expect him to contribute much on the defensive end, where he'll probably take a little while to adjust to the speed of the NHL, but he should be effective in the offensive zone, and he gives the Canes their first competent power-play quarterback since the days of Sandis Ozolinsh. Projection: 13/41/54
Joni Pitkanen: Just about everyone is expecting a strong year from Pitkanen, who will essentially serve as a clone of Jamie McBain. (Notice a trend here?) Pitkanen is the Canes' best all-around defenseman and he'll quietly put numbers up as he always does. Pitkanen will likely have more of an impact at even strength, while McBain will earn most of his points on the power play, so despite the fact I have them pegged for the same number of points they'll be earned in much different ways. Projection: 8/46/54
Joe Corvo: A poor man's Pitkanen, Corvo doesn't make the same split-second decisions that Pitkanen is brilliant with and his defensive zone coverage, while not in Ozolinsh territory, is fair at best. But you know what you're getting with Corvo, which is why he's back with the Canes after being traded to Washington at the trade deadline last year. He may be squeezed out of power play time with the ascendance of McBain, but he's still good for high-30 point potential, which is about where he's consistently been over the past five years. Projection: 11/28/39
Anton Babchuk: He's continually improved, no matter where he's played. That said, he is still prone to some serious defensive gaffes and it's entirely possible the coaching staff could sit him for the likes of Brett Carson or Bobby Sanguinetti depending on how effective his defensive-zone play is. But no one can deny the potent cannon that Babchuk possesses, and he should at least come close to his career high of 35 points if not pass it by a couple. Projection: 14/23/37
Tim Gleason: Despite the fact that he's down this low on the totem pole, Gleason is the Canes' most important defenseman and, especially this year, the one guy that will throw the entire defense out of whack if he misses time. While there's no shortage of Jim Rutherford's adored puck-moving defensemen on the roster, Gleason is the beginning and the end of the list of tough-to-play-against Hurricanes defensemen. His offense is ancillary to his leadership and defensive-zone play, so the projections are almost irrelevant...but we're doing them anyway. Projection: 7/22/29
Bobby Sanguinetti: Look, another puck-mover! Sanguinetti was decent in the preseason, but not a standout by any stretch, and while he'll start the season in the NHL it's likely he'll be on the Charlotte shuttle as well although he needs to clear waivers to be sent down. Since he's only played five games in the NHL, this projection is a bit of a shot in the dark, but that's not stopping us. Projection: 3/18/21
Brett Carson: A 54-game stint with the Canes last year seems to have given Carson the inside shot at being the sixth defenseman this season, but the organization's infatuation with Jay Harrison might block Carson out. Carson's no great shakes offensively, but like Gleason he's rarely caught out of position and he'll likely see extensive PK time while with the Canes. Offensively, though, there probably won't be much there. Projection: 5/16/21
Jay Harrison: It's rather ridiculous that he's even on this list, given his indifferent play last year and his less-than-stellar preseason. But he has a one-way contract for some reason, and a budget team won't pay anyone NHL money to ride buses in the AHL. So here he is, even though Casey Borer and Bryan Rodney probably have better claims to this spot; expecting more than pedestrian numbers from Harrison on either end will probably result in disappointment. Projection: 2/10/12
Goaltenders
Cam Ward: The conventional wisdom is that Ward had a down year last season, but his 2.75 GAA was an indictment of a defense that allowed him to see 1409 shots in just 47 games; prorated to 70 games, that's nearly 2100 shots, which would have ranked him fourth in the NHL. The .916 save percentage was more indicative of his play, even while spending nearly half the season nursing various injuries, and given the fact that the Canes have gotten younger this season the discrepancy will likely be in place again this year. Projection: 2.68/.919
Justin Peters: His first season as Ward's caddy will probably see him in 25 or so games, starting around 15 depending on injuries. Peters looked good at times last year, and playing his introductory games in the NHL for a team going nowhere last season will probably serve him well, since when the games count he'll have some experience under his belt. He's very clearly the second banana in net, though. Projection: 2.85/.902
Justin Pogge: In the Canes' quest to acquire as many goaltenders named Justin, Pogge will probably spend most of the season in Charlotte. He's only on the roster as the third goalie in Finland, and when the Canes return to North America he'll head down I-85. In the event of an injury to Peters or Ward, he'll get the call, but it's pointless to make a projection for a guy who might very well not play an NHL game this season.
Whew...made it before the season starts. Back before noon Thursday with predicted conference standings, playoffs and your Stanley Cup champion.
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