With a week to go, who will make the Canes' roster?

By Brian LeBlanc
NCSportsTalk.com - Puck Drops
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When training camp started, there were more open slots on the Canes' roster than at any point since the lockout.  Not to say that six open spots are anything to write home about, but for a franchise that has for years assigned lines and roster spots in June rather than September this qualifies as news.  With four open spaces at forward and two defensive spots open, the competition was expected to be fierce. However, as we've gone through the preseason there have been some surprises, both good and bad, so with a week left in camp we look at the chances of the players on the bubble to stick on the roster when the regular season begins next Friday.

Note that the NHL allows teams beginning the season overseas to have an expanded 25-man roster until they return from Europe.  One of those extra slots will undoubtedly go to Justin Pogge, who will serve as the third goaltender, and the second will likely go to a defenseman.  For purposes of this discussion, we will limit it to a normal 23-man roster and assess the odds from that benchmark.

Already on the team, barring catastrophe
F (8): Eric Staal, Sergei Samsonov, Tuomo Ruutu, Brandon Sutter, Erik Cole, Tom Kostopoulos, Jussi Jokinen, Chad LaRose
D (4): Tim Gleason, Joni Pitkanen, Anton Babchuk, Joe Corvo
G (2): Cam Ward, Justin Peters (plus Justin Pogge, who will go to Europe but will almost certainly be sent to Charlotte after the team returns)

Competition for Forward Spots
Patrick O'Sullivan: Signed the day camp opened, O'Sullivan has been a revelation in camp and a spot is almost certainly his to lose.  He has been productive in all facets of the game, including a turn as a penalty killer that resulted in a shorthanded goal in the first preseason game against Florida.  O'Sullivan is a historically streaky player, so to expect this great play to continue through the season is unrealistic, but he's more than earned a spot on the roster as he's been the best player on the ice for two of the Canes' four preseason games. Chance of making the team: 95%

Zach Boychuk: No one on the roster has seen his stock fall faster in the first two weeks of camp than Boychuk, who had by all accounts been given every opportunity to make the team but has looked increasingly lost as camp has progressed.  He has been tentative on the puck, ineffective off it and has been by far the most disappointing player relative to his potential to this point.  The emergence of O'Sullivan has been directly at Boychuk's expense, and while he may make the flight to Europe it will take a remarkable turnaround for him to stay on the 23-man roster.  There's probably a decent (maybe 35%) chance of Boychuk being traded for defensive help in the next couple of weeks, although the team will never admit this, because his perceived ceiling (and therefore, his value on the trade market) is higher than anyone else on the bubble. Chance of making the team: 30%

Jiri Tlusty: A torn ACL in the AHL playoffs last year has prevented Tlusty from playing in any preseason games, but he may be cleared in time to play one of the final two games before the Canes leave for Russia.  There were never any promises for Tlusty this season, but the fact that he must clear waivers to be sent down (plus the one-way deal he signed this offseason, ensuring he will make NHL money even if sent down) will likely result in a roster spot. Chance of making the team: 70%

Drayson Bowman: Unusually for such a small player, if Bowman makes the team it will be as a defensive specialist.  Bowman has earned raves from the coaching staff with his attention to defensive detail.  He could use another season in the AHL to bulk up, and with the number of defensive forwards already on the roster (Sutter, Staal, Kostopoulos, LaRose, etc.) he will likely be squeezed to Charlotte.  It hasn't been for a lack of effort, though, and he will probably be the first callup if he does head to the minors out of camp. Chance of making the team: 40%

Zac Dalpe: Dalpe's chances of making the team took a serious hit Sunday when the team announced Jussi Jokinen would likely play center on the third line.  If Dalpe were to make the team, that's where he would settle, so while he remains on the training camp roster it's likely that he will not be headed to Europe.  While looking solid on the puck and generally making good decisions on both ends, Dalpe has made the predictable rookie mistakes, to no one's surprise, and it wouldn't hurt him to play top-six minutes in Charlotte rather than having a ceiling of 15 minutes per game with the Canes. Remember, he only signed his professional contract with nine games remaining in Albany's season last year, so there's still development that needs to occur. Chance of making the team: 15%

Patrick Dwyer: Dwyer is a known quantity, having played 58 games with Carolina last season, and while he would likely clear waivers (and has a minors-friendly two-way deal) it would take an other-worldly performance from either Bowman or Dalpe to knock Dwyer down to Charlotte.  Much like Chad LaRose years ago, who always seemed from the outside to have a shakier roster spot than the inside believed, Dwyer is a known quantity in an organization that values the known highly.  He's virtually guaranteed a spot on the 23-man roster. Chance of making the team: 95%

Jeff Skinner: Even the franchise that valued him so highly that only the top two draft picks were above him on their board didn't think the decision on whether Skinner would make the team was going to be this easy. If not for O'Sullivan, Skinner would be the story of camp.  He's flown all over the ice, creating scoring chances out of nothing, and perhaps most importantly he teamed with Jokinen and LaRose on Friday night as part of the most effective line on the ice for either team.  That line is likely to remain intact when the season begins, and not only will Skinner make the opening-night roster, he will be on the roster for ten games, and his contract will be activated.  There's no guarantee he will stay up for the entire season, but if he can play at this level all year, why wouldn't the Canes keep him up? Chance of making the team: 90%

Likely to make the team: O'Sullivan, Dwyer, Skinner, Tlusty

Competition for Defense Spots
Jamie McBain: A spot on the 2010-11 roster has been McBain's to lose since last year's trade deadline, and he's done nothing to relinquish that spot.   McBain has been solid if unspectacular in the preseason, but unspectacular in his case is a good thing.  He's been smart with the puck and he doesn't give up odd-man rushes often, so he is a solid defender in addition to being a valuable weapon on offense.  No question there will be some growing pains as he goes through his first full NHL season, but it would take a remarkable regression combined with someone else stepping up for McBain to play anywhere other than Carolina this season. Chance of making the team: 99%

Bobby Sanguinetti: It's no surprise that the Canes are giving Sanguinetti an extended audition while sending potential roster-spot competitors Casey Borer and Bryan Rodney to Charlotte.  While the Canes know what they're getting with the likes of Borer and Rodney, Sanguinetti is still something of an unknown quantity.  Unfortunately for him, Sanguinetti's play has been shaky in the preseason.  He has been caught out of position somewhat regularly, and his offensive exploits have been pretty much nonexistent.  Even though Sanguinetti will be in camp for longer than most other hopefuls, he probably won't even be the first option as a callup, especially when considering that Sanguinetti is exempt from waivers and has a two-way deal. Like Bowman, Sanguinetti will likely head to Europe but will be in Charlotte after the Canes return. Chance of making the team: 30%

Brett Carson: A non-factor to the point of being invisible thus far, Carson is nonetheless a known quantity which increases his chances of sticking on the roster. The Canes know what they have with Carson, who proved last year that he can handle regular shifts, and he's probably going to be in a rotation with Jay Harrison (see below) as the sixth or seventh defenseman on any given night.  Note that Carson's chance of staying put on the NHL roster will drop quickly if the Canes pull the trigger on a deal for more defensive depth. Chance of making the team: 60%

Jay Harrison: By any reasonable account Harrison has done nothing to deserve a roster spot.  So why is only McBain listed with a higher probability of seeing the roster? Simple: Harrison has a one-way deal, and the Canes are in no mood to pay him NHL money to play for Charlotte while paying a two-way player like Carson or Sanguinetti to play NHL minutes.  Harrison has been frighteningly bad, and the ill-fated pairing with Anton Babchuk in Friday's game was a logistical nightmare.  After Bryan Rodney left with an injury, Harrison was mercifully moved from Babchuk's pairing onto a unit with Tim Gleason, which only proved that Gleason can compensate for Harrison's shortcomings.  There is no reasonable hockey reason Harrison should have a roster spot, but the budget being what it is you can safely expect Harrison to hold down a roster spot. Chance of making the team: 80%

Likely to make the team: McBain, Harrison, Carson (unless a trade is pulled off)

We'll know by Wednesday who makes the team. The Canes have one more cut to get down to 25, but since the budget is a consideration there's a decent chance the Canes will cut more players and only take 23 or 24 to Europe.  In any case, by the time the team comes back to the USA after the games in Helsinki the roster will almost certainly have no more than 21 players.

Who will they be? We'll find out soon enough.