NCSportsTalk.com - Puck Drops
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One of my favorite tweeters is a fellow who I only know as Puck Sage. He (?) is a Bruins fan who does a great job of covering and commenting on his hometown team, while reaching out into the rest of the NHL every so often. After his Bruins were unceremoniously dumped in the East semifinals, becoming the first team to blow a 3-0 series lead since the 1975 Penguins, he turned his attention to free agency with a cool contest that I figured I'd try my luck at.
There are four aspects to the contest. The rules are listed here; I won't list them again to save some space, but you'll need to refer back to them to figure out what the heck I'm talking about.
Here goes nothing...
Part 1: The First Domino
Forward: I might be called a homer for this pick, but I'm going to go with Matt Cullen. Here's why: we know Kovalchuk won't be the first to sign. He'll sign on July 1, no doubt, but it will be later in the day. That rules out guys like Whitney and Frolov signing early, because they're going to have to wait until Kovalchuk sets the market. Cullen is the type of player that teams like to target right off the bat. He signed early with the Rangers in 2006, and I think he'll probably do the same on Thursday.
Defenseman: Doubt it will be either Martin or Volchenkov, so I'm going to go with Willie Mitchell. Like Cullen, he's probably already being targeted by at least a couple of teams, and someone will snap him up quickly. A wild card is Henrik Tallinder, who I could see being signed early if he doesn't re-sign with Buffalo.
Goalie: I don't think it will take too long for Marty Turco to find a new home. And I'll go ahead and throw this out there: I think he goes to San Jose.
Part 2: Team UFA
Short and sweet:
Forwards
| F | Kovalchuk | 5 years | $44,250,000 | Cap hit: | $8,850,000 |
| F | Stempniak | 3 years | $9,250,000 | Cap hit: | $3,083,333 |
| F | Satan | 2 years | $5,250,000 | Cap hit: | $2,625,000 |
| F | Lombardi | 3 years | $6,750,000 | Cap hit: | $2,250,000 |
| F | Kariya | 1 year | $2,250,000 | Cap hit: | $2,250,000 |
| F | Cullen | 2 years | $4,250,000 | Cap hit: | $2,125,000 |
| F | Koivu | 6 years | $11,250,000 | Cap hit: | $1,875,000 |
| F | Prospal | 1 year | $1,875,000 | Cap hit: | $1,875,000 |
| F | Tanguay | 2 years | $3,500,000 | Cap hit: | $1,750,000 |
| F | Lehtinen | 1 year | $1,500,000 | Cap hit: | $1,500,000 |
| F | Begin | 2 years | $2,150,000 | Cap hit: | $1,075,000 |
| F | Madden | 1 year | $1,000,000 | Cap hit: | $1,000,000 |
| F | Veillieux | 1 year | $875,000 | Cap hit: | $875,000 |
Defensemen
| D | Mitchell | 3 years | $11,000,000 | Cap hit: | $3,666,667 |
| D | Tallinder | 5 years | $14,250,000 | Cap hit: | $2,850,000 |
| D | Sutton | 2 years | $5,500,000 | Cap hit: | $2,750,000 |
| D | Lilja | 1 year | $1,750,000 | Cap hit: | $1,750,000 |
| D | Mara | 2 years | $3,500,000 | Cap hit: | $1,750,000 |
| D | Krajicek | 3 years | $4,950,000 | Cap hit: | $1,650,000 |
| D | Foster | 1 year | $1,125,000 | Cap hit: | $1,125,000 |
Goaltenders
| G | Turco | 2 years | $6,500,000 | Cap hit: | $3,250,000 |
| G | Niittymaki | 3 years | $4,250,000 | Cap hit: | $1,416,667 |
Part 3: Worst Contract
The Toronto Maple Leafs. Two years ago, it was Jeff Finger. Last year, Francois Beauchemin and Mike Komisarek (who is getting around what Anton Volchenkov will command, even though Volchenkov is indisputably better). You watch them give four years and $24 million to, say, Olli Jokinen.
Part 4: Where's Ilya
If there's any team that's going to throw an insane amount of money at Ilya Kovalchuk, it's the Leafs. I think there's a chance that Kovalchuk will end up in Los Angeles, but Dean Lombardi won't allow himself to get into a bidding war for Kovalchuk's services, not when they can sign a guy like Alex Tanguay or Marek Svatos (or even Ray Whitney, if he decides he wants to play in LA). Am I comparing Kovalchuk to those types of players? Obviously, no. But the Kings already have Kopitar, and he is to the Kings what Kovalchuk would be to the Devils, or the Leafs, or anyone else who'd seriously court him: a top-line scorer.
I fully expect the Kings to make a pitch to Kovalchuk, but they won't break the bank to sign him. (Remember, Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson are RFAs after next year, and they'll eat up plenty of cap space. Doughty by himself could approach $7 million per year.) The Leafs have cap space to burn, a GM that loves to make a splash and a fanbase that would eat up a signing like this. They're my pick to land Kovalchuk.
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