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Every season, one of the requisite assignments for hockey writers is to come up with a list of predictions for the upcoming season. Here at Puck Drops, we willingly obliged last September, offering predictions of what we thought would happen in the Canes’ 2009-10 season.
However, few sites actually dig those predictions out of the mothballs at the end of the season and see how they did. We have no problem doing so, even though after reading back through the predictions you might (rightly) wonder why we even waste our time doing them in the first place.
Here, then, are the predictions we made at the start of the season and exactly how far offbase they were. Remember that the predicted totals assumed that the player would play every game, so we also give the per-82-games pace for the player’s season stats.
Here we go…
Eric Staal
What was said then: “Expect the consistent Staal to come close to 100 points again, with a chance to pass the plateau for the first time in his career if everything goes right. Projected totals: 42 goals, 55 assists, 97 points”
What happened: It was a wild year for Staal, who played through almost the entire season with a host of injuries, including an upper-body injury that knocked him out for most of November at a time when Cam Ward was also injured. Despite a slow start, Staal caught fire after being named captain on January 20, going for 19-18-37 in the final 34 games of the year (an 89-point pace) and notching two hat tricks, the second his franchise-record 10th career hat trick. An odd year for the Canes’ captain, but if his end-of-season performance is any indication he should bounce back just fine next year. Totals: 29-41-70 in 70 games; per 82 games, 34-48-82
Tuomo Ruutu
What was said then: “He's the space clearer that Erik Cole used to be, and while he might be hard-pressed to replicate last year's success he still should be able to pile in some of the garbage goals he made a living off of last season. Projected totals: 22 goals, 37 assists, 59 points”
What happened: Ruutu rode shotgun on Staal’s line most of the year, at least until January 10 when he injured his shoulder in a fight with Colorado’s Darcy Tucker. Even though he came back before the Olympics (and played in Vancouver) he clearly was not the same player after the injury, and he finally shut it down for good in late March. When healthy, he was a force, and he proved our guess correct by scoring 11 of his 14 goals (most of them of the dirty variety) before he was injured. Ruutu and Staal seem to be developing the same sort of chemistry as Staal had with Cole back in the day, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Ruutu-Staal-Jokinen combination together most of next year as long as everyone stays healthy. Totals: 14-21-35 in 51 games; per 82 games, 22-34-56
Erik Cole
What was said then: “As long as the expectations aren't set too high, Cole should be fine, but an extended cold spell could result in him toiling on the third line. Projected totals: 19 goals, 34 assists, 53 points”
What happened: Cole broke his leg in the second game of the year and never really gained a foothold even after returning at the beginning of November. A second injury, probably to his neck although the team never confirmed it, knocked him out for more than two months and when he finally returned he indeed toiled on the third line alongside the likes of Patrick Dwyer and Tom Kostopoulos. It’s hard to admit for a guy who has meant so much to the Canes over the years, but Cole is little more than a role player now and his days of consistent 50-point seasons are probably gone for good. Totals: 11-5-16 in 40 games; per 82 games, 23-10-33
Ray Whitney
What was said then: “Whitney is the playmaker of the second line, and he should be in line for another quietly effective season. Projected totals: 29 goals, 58 assists, 87 points”
What happened: It was probably a bit excessive to pencil Whitney in for a career-high in assists and points at age 37, but Whitney had earned that respect after going for 77 points the year before and showing that he still had it. Whitney spent most of the year on a line with Brandon Sutter, who was the biggest surprise of the season but isn’t an offensive dynamo by any stretch, his 20-goal season notwithstanding. Likewise, Whitney saw his production drop, although he still finished third on the team in scoring and, since he was not traded at the deadline, will likely return next year to do more of the same. Totals: 21-37-58 in 80 games
Matt Cullen
What was said then: “Playing the point on the power play all season might inflate his assists total at the expense of his goals, but the consistent Cullen will likely see his 40-point streak continue this season. Projected totals: 17 goals, 33 assists, 50 points”
What happened: Cullen was shuffled to the third line for most of the year as the emergence of Brandon Sutter gave the Canes two #2 centers, but his production didn’t dip much and he continued to form a great penalty-killing tandem with Chad LaRose, tying with Tom Kostopoulos for the team lead with two shorthanded goals apiece. Since Cullen was to be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, the Canes shipped him to Ottawa just before the Olympics for Alexandre Picard and a second-round draft pick, but while in Raleigh Cullen continued to put up consistent numbers. Could Cullen return for a third tour of duty in Raleigh this offseason? It seems unlikely, but as we’ve learned, the Canes are by far the best situation for the consistent Cullen. Totals: 16-32-48 in 81 games
Chad LaRose
What was said then: “The temptation is to mark Rosey down for a letdown season now that he has his contract in hand, but don't doubt the guy that has worked his tail off for everything he's ever earned in a Canes sweater. His first career 20-goal season should be in reach after he missed out by one goal last year. Projected totals: 21 goals, 27 assists, 48 points”
What happened: Like so many others on the Canes roster, LaRose had a season hampered by injuries, including a lower-body concern that kept him out of action for over a month in December and January. He got off to a horrendously slow start, not scoring a goal until November 21 and bringing to mind the 2006-07 season where he couldn’t buy a goal to save his life. LaRose did indeed have a letdown season, although most of it wasn’t of his own doing and he got hot toward the end of the year when finally healthy. His pairing with Matt Cullen worked well for both players both at even strength and on the penalty kill; with Cullen gone, will LaRose mesh as well with anyone else on the roster? Totals: 11-17-28 in 56 games; per 82 games, 16-25-41
Sergei Samsonov
What was said then: “Depending on what happens with Cole, Samsonov is the most likely candidate to move around in the lineup, and his play last season shows that he will fit just about anywhere on the roster. Projected totals: 17 goals, 32 assists, 49 points”
What happened: Given who he played with, it’s a wonder Samsonov even got to 14 goals. Like last year, Samsonov spent a good amount of time on a wing with Rod Brind’Amour, who was even more offensively challenged than he was last season when Samsonov had 48 points. As a result, Samsonov’s production tailed off to a level not reached since 2006-07 when he was in Montreal, and he enters this offseason as a potential trade or buyout candidate depending on what the Canes do in the market. Samsonov elicited the same frustration that he showed in Chicago and Montreal this year, and he didn’t display the consistency needed to play top-nine minutes. As a result, he’s stuck in no-man’s land and there doesn’t seem to be a quick out for him. Totals: 14-15-29 in 72 games; per 82 games, 16-17-33
Rod Brind’Amour
What was said then: “His position in the pecking order of centers is now a clear third behind Staal and Cullen, so he might not have the ice time necessary to reach 50 points. He'll come close, though. Projected totals: 19 goals, 26 assists, 45 points”
What happened: Take your pick. Stripped of the captaincy? Check. Ice time levels not seen in his career? Check. A healthy scratch (December 7 in Pittsburgh)? Check. Add it all up and it was bar none the most disappointing season of Brind’Amour’s career, and his late-season renaissance in 2008-09 seems more and more to be an anomaly. His nine goals tied a career low set in 1999-2000, the season in which he was traded to Carolina and only played 45 games. In the last two seasons, Brind’Amour is a stunningly awful minus-52 (!!!!!!!!!!!), following a team-worst-by-a-mile minus-29 this season. It would still surprise me if he didn’t return next year, but his role will essentially encompass that of elder statesman and faceoff specialist, and little else. Totals: 9-10-19 in 80 games
Jussi Jokinen
What was said then: “A full season in the Carolina system may provide some pleasant surprises for Jokinen. Projected totals: 22 goals, 17 assists, 39 points”
What happened: With apologies to Brandon Sutter, whose emergence gave the Canes a pleasant surprise and allowed them to survive with Brind’Amour’s sub-par production, the fact that Jokinen led the team in goals was the story of the year. Jokinen found a home on Eric Staal’s wing and didn’t move much from there, and as a result he earned his first 30-goal season at any level in his career. When Team Finland looked elsewhere for the Olympics, Jokinen insisted that he wasn’t disappointed, but considering 22 of his 30 goals came after he learned of the snub you can draw your own conclusions. Jokinen’s versatility allowed the team to weather the double-whammy of Staal’s injury and Brind’Amour’s disappointing play, and it’s beyond amazing that the Lightning were willing to let him go for next to nothing a year ago. Totals: 30-35-65 in 81 games
Scott Walker
What was said then: “Walker will be in a purely checking role for the first time in his Carolina career, and his point production will probably drop accordingly. Additionally, his style lends itself to being frequently banged up, so this projection is clearly a best-case scenario. Projected totals: 16 goals, 21 assists, 37 points”
What happened: Yeah, that definitely was a best-case scenario. Walker spent most of his time this season on a line with Brind’Amour and Stephane Yelle, and it goes without saying that a line like that isn’t going to set the world on fire. Accordingly, Walker only scored three goals with the Canes before an injury took him out of commission for January and February, and he was eventually traded to Washington for next to nothing at the deadline. He ended his season with his team blowing a 3-2 lead to Montreal in the first round of the playoffs, and it would surprise no one if he said enough and called it quits. Totals: 5-3-8 in 42 games; per 82 games, 10-6-16
Stephane Yelle
What was said then: “Given the propensity of accomplished penalty killers on the Canes' roster, Yelle will add to one of the top corps in the league, and perhaps most importantly he will buy the Canes another year to develop Brandon Sutter in Albany to take this spot in the lineup in 2010. Projected totals: 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points”
What happened: When the Canes needed to do something to shake up the roster early in the season, they indeed called up Brandon Sutter, though it was no fault of Yelle’s that the Sutter-in-Albany experiment ended almost before it began. Sutter marched right onto the second line and promptly scored 20 goals, while Yelle did exactly as advertised: kill penalties, score every once in a while and play about ten minutes a night. Mission accomplished, I suppose, and with the Canes out of contention in March Yelle was shipped back to Colorado to lend a veteran presence on a young team that unexpectedly made the playoffs and put a scare into top-seeded San Jose in the first round. Totals: 4-4-8 in 70 games; per 82 games, 5-5-10
Tom Kostopoulos
What was said then: “A plugger who will eat up ice time while being responsible defensively, Kostopoulos will mirror his counterpart Walker on the other side of the line and the two should make the Canes' fourth line a very tough one to play against. Kostopoulos has scored precisely 22 points in four of his five full NHL seasons; why mess with success? Projected totals: 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points”
What happened: If you can say that a guy who was brought in to play 12-14 minutes a night exceeded expectations, then Kostopoulos certainly did. He didn’t exactly show a massive scoring touch, but he tied with Cullen with two shorthanded goals, was the only Canes player to appear in every single game and was one of three players (Staal and Jokinen were the others) to finish with a plus rating. What you see is what you get with Kostopoulos, and while he will never be on a top-two line he is perfect for what a team needs on its third or fourth line. In a year where quite a bit went wrong for the Canes, Kostopoulos was one of the things that went very right. Totals: 8-13-21 in 82 games
What did we miss?
The obvious omission from the list is Brandon Sutter, who was sent down to Albany out of training camp but came up in the first month of the season and went on to post a 21-19-40 line in 72 games. I’m still not convinced you can pencil him in as a perennial 20-goal scorer, but he definitely made the decline of Brind’Amour much more tolerable, such as it was.
As the wheels started coming off the season and the Canes called more and more youngsters up, Sutter and Patrick Dwyer (7-5-12 in 58 games) were the most reliable scorers. Other forwards getting their feet wet included Zach Boychuk (3-6-9 in 31 GP), Jiri Tlusty (1-5-6 in 18 GP), Drayson Bowman (2-0-2 in 9 GP) and Jerome Samson (0-2-2 in 7 GP). Those four plus Oskar Osala (0-0-0 in 1 GP), who was acquired in a deal for Joe Corvo from Washington at the deadline, will compete for a couple of roster spots at training camp and all five are expected to see at least some consistent NHL ice time next season. Steven Goertzen and Tim Conboy were also called up for a few games apiece, but neither accomplished anything on the scoresheet aside from a few fights and roughing penalties.
Back in a few days with a review of the defensemen…
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