NCSportsTalk.com - Puck Drops
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It's high comedy every April to look back at the previous October and see what kinds of stupid projections hack writers such as yours truly spew. Yet every October, like the swallows to San Juan Capistrano, we throw these projections up on various websites and open ourselves to ridicule and second-guessing. Clearly, we are nothing more than minor masochists. (Either that, or we need something to fill space. I'm going with the former.)
And with that, let's get going! Teams are in order of their projected finish in each conference. (Note: I planned on doing both conferences tonight, then realized that I didn't want to stay up until 3 in the morning. The Western Conference is forthcoming tomorrow.)
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia Flyers: It wouldn't be the Flyers if there wasn't a goalie controversy. This year's participants in the Flyers Goaltending Derby are Ray Emery, late of Ottawa via Russia, and six-time former Flyer Brian Boucher. However, in front of the goal the Flyers are as strong as they've been at any time since the Legion of Doom days in the mid-'90s. The addition of Chris Pronger more than offsets the loss of the defenseman formerly known as Derian Hatcher, who finally made his retirement official after three years of playing through it. Being the Flyers, you expect them to punch and hip-check their way to a division title, and they should be able to enter the postseason as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Projected finish: 52-24-6, 110 points, 1st in Atlantic
Washington Capitals: See here. Projected finish: 51-25-6, 108 points, 1st in Southeast
Boston Bruins: They took a minor step back from their finish last season by losing Phil Kessel to Toronto, plus trading Aaron Ward to Carolina, but they have the depth to make up for it. Blake Wheeler, he of 26 goals last season, should slide into Kessel's slot on the second line, and Tim Thomas will likely replicate his Vezina Trophy-winning performance of last season. Not to mention, Zdeno Chara is still really big, and really good. The Big Bad Bruins will enjoy another great season and the rest of us will be subjected to more Chowdahead harrumphing about how wondahful da Broonz ah. Projected finish: 49-27-6, 104 points, 1st in Northeast
Pittsburgh Penguins: Speaking of steps backward, there's no chance the Penguins will suffer the same indignity that befell the '06-07 Hurricanes who missed the playoffs the year after winning the Cup. That said, it's obvious that the Flyers took a big step forward and the Penguins will have their work cut out for them to repeat as Atlantic champs. The losses of Rob Scuderi (LA) and Hal Gill (Montreal), while underrated contributors, takes away two solid minutes-eating defensemen and they'll need to be replaced by the likes of Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang, both of whom saw limited roles last season but will be asked to do even more this season. Still, a triple-digit points total is attainable anytime you can boast Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal down the middle. Projected finish: 46-26-10, 102 points, 2nd in Atlantic
Carolina Hurricanes: See here and here. Projected finish: 45-27-10, 100 points, 2nd in Southeast
New Jersey Devils: With Jacques Lemaire back behind the bench for his second tour of duty, the Devils won't exactly set the world on fire offensively (hope you enjoyed those 45 goals, Zach Parise), but you just know that they'll go about their business and be right in the mix at the end of the season. Honestly, at this point does it even matter who they throw out on the ice? Lose John Madden to Chicago? Hello, Rod Pelley. Brian Gionta flies off to Montreal? Come on down, Brendan Shanahan. The Devils lost a bunch in the offseason, but there's no reason to think they'll be on the outside looking in come April. Projected finish: 45-30-7, 97 points, 3rd in Atlantic
Florida Panthers: See here. Projected finish: 42-29-11, 95 points, 3rd in Atlantic
Montreal Canadiens: I'll be honest, when I started writing down my projected finishes I didn't think there was any way I would place the Habs in a playoff spot, yet lo and behold here they are holding down the eighth spot. This year's Mighty Mite version of the Habs (players taller than 6' need not apply) reminds me of the early-2000s Rangers teams that made a great fantasy team but a subpar actual NHL club. They went out and acquired Scott Gomez and the aforementioned Gionta, who should more than compensate for the losses of Saku Koivu and Alex Tanguay. Alexei Kovalev left for Ottawa, which might or might not be a loss depending on how the wind is blowing on any given day. The key, of course, is whether Carey Price can recover from an unquestioned flop last year; he will recover to a certain extent, but the $64,000 question is whether that renaissance will come after he's run out of Montreal. Projected finish: 42-32-8, 92 points, 2nd in Northeast
New York Rangers: John Tortorella might blow a gasket if his team misses the playoffs, but losing Gomez without sufficiently replacing him (and no, I don't count Marian Gaborik And His Wonky Groin as a sufficient replacement for just about anyone) will force the Rangers to fit round pegs into square holes all season. Brandon Dubinsky missed most of the preseason in a contract dispute, so he'll be behind the eight-ball from the start, and outside of Marc Staal the defense is nothing special (what happened to the defensemen formerly known as Wade Redden and Michal Roszival?). At least for those of us in the media, we'll be treated to some, um, colorful Tortorella press conferences. Projected finish: 40-35-7, 87 points, 4th in Atlantic
Buffalo Sabres: Yet again, the Sabres consist of Ryan Miller, a wing, and a prayer. Two years ago, it was Chris Drury leaving in the offseason; last year, when Miller went down in mid-February the hopes of the Sabres to make the playoffs went down with him. If the Sabres' top six forwards stay healthy, they have every reason to be in the playoff conversation, but
Ottawa Senators: They did OK for themselves getting Jonathan Cheechoo and Milan Michalek for Dany Heatley, and Alexei Kovalev adds some punch to the top line, but will Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson be as effective without Heatley on their right wing? On top of that, new starter Pascal Leclaire will be in a true pressure situation for the first time after spending years in Columbus, so the Sens have the look of a slow-starting team who will get better as the season goes on. They'll have their nights, but overall it will be a little too inconsistent to get them into the postseason. Projected finish: 37-38-7, 81 points, 4th in Northeast
Toronto Maple Leafs: I wanted to put them in the postseason. Really, I did. But they're still a year off. Brian Burke pulled off some coups, getting both Mike Komisarek and Phil Kessel to headline an impressive free-agent haul that will see the likes of Luke Schenn and Michael Grabovski gain some impressive veterans to lean on as they develop. The Leafs will be tough to play -- Colton Orr, anyone? -- and will make life difficult for anyone they face, but they need one more year of seasoning and Jonas Gustavsson needs to get accustomed to the North American game. Next year, though, look out. Projected finish: 36-38-8, 80 points, 5th in Northeast
Tampa Bay Lightning: See here. Projected finish: 35-38-9, 79 points, 4th in Southeast
New York Islanders: That's right, the Your Town Here Islanders will climb out of the Eastern Conference basement for the first time in three seasons. John Tavares will probably find things develop much the same way Steven Stamkos did last year, with a slow start followed by a fire-catching second half, and the additions of Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron give the Isles insurance for when Rick DiPietro misses 25 games again. Kyle Okposo should flirt with 40 goals, and Doug Weight gives the young Isles some veteran leadership. Their defense still resembles Swiss cheese, so it's still a major work in progress, but at least there's a faint light of hope in the distance. Now, will the team actually stay on Long Island long enough to see these players fulfill their potential? Projected finish: 31-40-11, 73 points, 5th in Atlantic
Atlanta Thrashers: See here. Projected finish: 27-47-8, 62 points, 5th in Southeast
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