By Brian LeBlanc
NCSportsTalk.com - Puck Drops
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It's no surprise that the Canes' forward corps saw significantly less turnover this offseason than the defense did. The only significant changes were on the bottom of the roster, where Ryan Bayda (free agent, training-camp tryout in Pittsburgh) and Patrick Eaves (trade, to Detroit via Boston) were replaced by the likes of Tom Kostopolous and Stephane Yelle. Indeed, even in the first few days of training camp Paul Maurice was able to put some lines together, a rare occurrence at a time when all-stars and untested rookies tend to play together for a few days.
The Canes managed 236 goals last season, good for 16th in the league, but 171 of those came in the final 57 games after Paul Maurice took over behind the bench for Peter Laviolette. Although a 3.00 goals-for average under Maurice is a welcome change of playing for 2-1 games in his previous tour of duty, the Canes have always relied on an offense by committee, and with the exception of Eric Staal the Canes again have no real threats to light up opposing goaltenders on a regular basis. To be successful, they'll need to repeat their Stanley Cup-winning committee of 2005-06, when six players scored at least 20 goals and four topped 30.
We'll run down the list in order of the projected lines. Projected totals are nothing more than a guess, as well as something to laugh at me for around the beginning of April, and they assume no injuries (which clearly won't be the case).
Here goes nothing...
#12 Eric Staal: Hard to believe that the cornerstone of the franchise begins his sixth season in Raleigh. Staal is an atypical center in that he gets most of his points via scoring goals with his patented quick wrister, rather than piling up assists a la Sidney Crosby or Marc Savard. Clearly no one is complaining, as Staal is coming off the second 40-goal season of his career and is the unquestioned engine powering the Canes' offense. He became more involved in the penalty kill after Maurice took over, and with Matt Cullen's return his days of playing the point on the power play pretty much went by the wayside last season. Expect the consistent Staal to come close to 100 points again, with a chance to pass the plateau for the first time in his career if everything goes right. Projected totals: 42 goals, 55 assists, 97 points
#15 Tuomo Ruutu: Last year was a breakout season for Ruutu, scoring 20 goals for the first time since the lockout while holding down the fort on Staal's left wing for most of the season. He was handsomely rewarded for it, signing a three-year deal in the offseason that will pay him over $11 million. Ruutu took a while to develop, but he flourished last year while playing with the most talented linemates he'd ever been paired with. He's the space clearer that Erik Cole used to be, and while he might be hard-pressed to replicate last year's success he still should be able to pile in some of the garbage goals he made a living off of last season. Projected totals: 22 goals, 37 assists, 59 points
#26 Erik Cole: After returning from the hinterlands of Edmonton at the trade deadline, Cole and Staal reignited the explosive chemistry that powered the team to the Stanley Cup three seasons prior. Unfortunately, the well ran dry in the postseason, as Cole and Ruutu combined for a grand total of one goal in 18 games (and Cole was the one with the bagel). Cole hasn't been the same player since he had his neck broken in 2006, and while Staal clearly has a comfort zone with his longtime winger, Cole seems to be on the slow downslope of his career, where he's eternally banged-up and simply isn't able to be the consistent power forward that he was before the injury. As long as the expectations aren't set too high, Cole should be fine, but an extended cold spell could result in him toiling on the third line. Projected totals: 19 goals, 34 assists, 53 points
#13 Ray Whitney: The best signing of the 2005 offseason keeps paying dividends. Whitney has quietly yet consistently provided the secondary scoring that every team needs, and his line with Matt Cullen and Chad LaRose was often the Canes' best line late last season. Even at 37, Whitney shows no signs of slowing down, and surprisingly it's Whitney, not Eric Staal, who has led the team in scoring for two of the last three seasons. Whitney is the playmaker of the second line, and he should be in line for another quietly effective season. Projected totals: 29 goals, 58 assists, 87 points
#8 Matt Cullen: Cullen is the prototypical example of a player whose value to one team isn't exactly transportable to other clubs. His second season back in Raleigh after a one-year sojourn with the New York Rangers saw Cullen reach 40 points for the fourth straight season, and his dependability is what keeps him almost a foregone conclusion in the Canes' lineup. Playing the point on the power play all season might inflate his assists total at the expense of his goals, but the consistent Cullen will likely see his 40-point streak continue this season. Projected totals: 17 goals, 33 assists, 50 points
#59 Chad LaRose: After testing the free agent waters for a few days, the popular LaRose returned to the Canes after a career year, one in which his stock went even higher after tying for second on the team in scoring during the playoffs. LaRose was the beneficiary of remarkable line chemistry, the likes of which hadn't been seen at the RBC Center since the halcyon days of the Stillman-Staal-Cole combination in the 05-06 regular season. He and Cullen formed a potent penalty kill that hit its stride in the postseason, and added four shorthanded goals between them during the regular season. The temptation is to mark Rosey down for a letdown season now that he has his contract in hand, but don't doubt the guy that has worked his tail off for everything he's ever earned in a Canes sweater. His first career 20-goal season should be in reach after he missed out by one goal last year. Projected totals: 21 goals, 27 assists, 48 points
#14 Sergei Samsonov: Probably the hardest guy on the team to project, given his ability in relation to his position on the roster, Samsonov bounced around for awhile after the Canes reacquired Cole at the trade deadline, finally settling on a spot on Rod Brind'Amour's left wing near the end of the regular season. Samsonov reinvented himself yet again, settling into a role as a complimentary scorer rather than being shoehorned into feeding Staal on the top line while playing a responsible two-way game. Depending on what happens with Cole, Samsonov is the most likely candidate to move around in the lineup, and his play last season shows that he will fit just about anywhere on the roster. Projected totals: 17 goals, 32 assists, 49 points
#17 Rod Brind'Amour: No one is looking more forward to a bounceback season than the Canes' captain. Brind'Amour started the season still very obviously nursing his ACL injury from late in the 07-08 season, and it wasn't until he was sent home from a roadtrip to western Canada in February before he caught fire late in the season. Even discounting his career-worst -23 rating, a stunning number for a player long considered one of the top defensive forwards in the game, Brind'Amour still hit the 50-point mark for the fourth straight season, and it would stand to reason that a full healthy season would see him improve on his 51 points from last season. However, his position in the pecking order of centers is now a clear third behind Staal and Cullen, so he might not have the ice time necessary to reach 50. He'll come close, though. Projected totals: 19 goals, 26 assists, 45 points
#36 Jussi Jokinen: The latest in the line of reclamation projects that started with Stillman and Whitney in 2005, Jussi Jokinen was a revelation in the playoffs for the Canes. Paul Maurice said repeatedly that Jokinen's flexibility was key to the Canes surviving a spate of late injuries, since he can play both center and wing and is skilled enough to hold his own with the Staals and Whitneys of the world, yet is defensively responsible enough to kill penalties and take a regular shift on the third line. Jokinen's seven playoff goals included two of the most unlikely goals you'll ever see, the buzzer-beater with 0.2 seconds left in the third period of game 4 against New Jersey, and the tying goal in game 7 that led to Eric Staal's game-winner with less than a minute left in game 7 of the same series. Acquiring Jokinen for spare parts in February was a spark that may have had more impact on the rest of the season than even the reacquisition of Cole, and a full season in the Carolina system may provide some pleasant surprises for Jokinen. Projected totals: 22 goals, 17 assists, 39 points
#24 Scott Walker: Putting aside for a second the bizarre spectacle of Walker and Aaron Ward, combatants in one of the most controversial moments of the 2009 playoffs, wearing the same jersey this season, Walker endured more late in the season than anyone outside the locker room knew. Walker's wife, Julie, was diagnosed with cervical cancer during the playoffs, providing the winger with some hefty emotional baggage to carry around with him in the postseason. Julie Walker's treatment in the offseason went well, and Scott Walker should be back to his regular self causing havoc among the opposition while providing highlight-reel hits that give the home crowd something to cheer about. Walker will be in a purely checking role for the first time in his Carolina career, and his point production will probably drop accordingly. Additionally, his style lends itself to being frequently banged up, so this projection is clearly a best-case scenario. Projected totals: 16 goals, 21 assists, 37 points
#18 Stephane Yelle: One of three former Boston Bruins on the Canes' roster this season, what you see is what you get with Yelle. The first truly defensive forward the Canes have had on their roster since the days of Kevyn Adams, Yelle will have one job and one job only: keep the puck out of his own net. In previous stops with the Avalanche, Flames and Bruins, Yelle has carved out a reputation as a top-notch penalty killer and defensive specialist. Given the propensity of accomplished penalty killers on the Canes' roster, Yelle will add to one of the top corps in the league, and perhaps most importantly he will buy the Canes another year to develop Brandon Sutter in Albany to take this spot in the lineup in 2010. Projected totals: 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points
#29 Tom Kostopolous: If Yelle will fill the Kevyn Adams role, Kostopolous will fill the Craig Adams role on the fourth line. A plugger who will eat up ice time while being responsible defensively, Kostopolous will mirror his counterpart Walker on the other side of the line and the two should make the Canes' fourth line a very tough one to play against. Kostopolous has scored precisely 22 points in four of his five full NHL seasons; why mess with success? Projected totals: 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points
Among players who will start the season in Albany, it seems obvious that the Canes want to try to keep a line of Drayson Bowman, Brandon Sutter and Zach Boychuk together in the AHL for the majority of the season. With that in mind, the first callups are likely to be guys like Patrick Dwyer, Michael Ryan and Steven Goertzen, with the youngsters who are still developing likely to stay in Albany all season except in the case of a catastrophic injury to a top-nine forward. This season's Canes lineup is as set as any have been since 2006, and the familiarity should serve the team well as they will develop chemistry within the combinations.
Later this week we'll preview the defensemen and goaltenders. Also, don't forget the premiere of the Puck Drops Podcast, which will be posted on Monday.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
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